ACI EUROPE has today released a revised passenger traffic forecast for the European airport network, showing that passenger volumes in 2023 are set to fall -9% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels and that a full recovery has now been pushed back to 2025 – rather than 2024 as previously forecast (May 2022).

Continued geopolitical tensions and the war in Ukraine will keep impacting several national markets – and dominate downside risks. Deteriorating macro-economics and inflationary pressures are also set to weigh on demand, with air fares having increased sharply throughout Q3 and Q4 2022 . Higher regulatory costs will also result in sustained inflationary pressures on air fares. On the supply side, tight capacity management mainly by Full Service Carriers and the permanence of travel restrictions to China will also limit further traffic growth. 

At the same time, ACI EUROPE expects the impact of these negative determinants on passenger traffic to be partially compensated by a degree of resilience in leisure demand and the continued expansion of Ultra-Low Cost Carriers. The end of the airport slots waiver granted to airlines as of next Summer should also ease supply pressures.

All these factors will impact airports differently depending on their location, size, market position and business model. This means the increasing gaps in traffic performance which we already see across our footprint are here to stay, at least as we move through the year to come.